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Dinger Derby

Frequently Asked Questions

Everything we get asked, in one place - from how the picks work to why we skip April.

What is Dinger Derby?

Dinger Derby is a data-driven baseball home run prediction service. Our model analyzes batter tendencies, pitcher vulnerabilities, historical matchups, and environmental factors to identify when a player's true HR probability exceeds what sportsbooks are offering.

That's where the edge is.

What packages do you offer?
PackageWhat You GetDaily Risk
Rookie20-30+ basic, straight picks per month~5u
ProMinimum of 100 high-quality, straight picks and minimum of 20 2-leg parlays per month~7u
All-StarMinimum of 120 high-quality, straight picks and minimum of 400 round-robin 2-leg parlays per month~21u
What does a pick look like?

Each pick includes the player name, the game, the best available odds and which book has them, our model's HR probability, and the edge over the implied book probability.

Kyle Manzardo - CLE @ SEA

Best Odds: +725 (BetMGM) | Model Prob: 28.1% | Edge: 15.2%

PARLAY: Kyle Manzardo +725 x C. J. Kayfus +900 = +8150

When are picks posted?
Picks are locked 30 minutes before the first game of the day. We recommend checking back 2-4 hours before first pitch for the most complete slate, as MLB lineups roll in throughout the morning.
Why do you skip April? Isn’t that part of the season?

It is - we love watching baseball in April, we just don't think it's a good fit for picks.

Our models have consistently flagged April as a losing month across multiple seasons. Early-season baseball is unpredictable by nature: pitchers aren't at full throttle, rosters are still shaking out, the sample sizes are tiny, and cold-weather stadiums throw off everything from pitch movement to attendance patterns.

We could publish analytics starting Opening Day. But we'd be knowingly putting our subscribers into a month our own data says is a loser - and that's not something we're willing to do. Our job is to give you the best possible edge, and sometimes that means knowing when to stay on the sideline.

May 1st is when the numbers get reliable. That's when we get to work.

What does "edge" mean?
Edge is the difference between our model’s estimated HR probability and the sportsbook’s implied probability. A +15% edge means our model thinks the player is significantly more likely to hit a home run than the odds suggest. We only recommend bets with positive edge.
How are picks ranked?
Picks are ranked by edge - the size of the gap between our model and the books. Pro and All-Star subscribers get the highest-conviction plays, while Rookie gets the next tier down.
What factors does the model consider?

Our model evaluates over 100 features across four categories:

  • Batter - power metrics, bat speed, barrel rates, recent form
  • Pitcher - velocity, pitch mix, HR rate allowed, contact quality
  • Matchup - head-to-head history, platoon advantage, handedness
  • Environment - park factor, temperature, wind speed and direction
What’s a "unit"?
A unit (u) is a standard bet size.
Do parlays hit?
HR parlays are long shots by nature - that’s why the payouts are +5000 to +10000. They won’t hit every day, but when they do, one win can cover weeks of straight bet losses. The All-Star package is designed for bettors who want that upside exposure.
Can I just tail the free picks?

Absolutely! We publish all of our picks free throughout April so you can see the model in action before the season starts May 1st. Once our season begins, we post one free pick per day on our Free Daily Picks page.

You're welcome to tail those picks, but one pick a day only scratches the surface. Our model surfaces dozens of edges every slate, and the full volume, the parlays, and the highest-conviction plays are what drive real returns over a season. If you want the full benefit of the model, a package is the way to go.

Still have questions? Reach out.