Smart money findssmarter edge.
Three winning seasons in a row.
Dinger Derby's home-run picks are powered by a model trained on 6.7M pitches of Statcast data - All-Star delivered +91.1% ROI last season, and every pick is public.
The Receipts
Three years. Three winning seasons. No excuses.
Every pick flat-weighted at 1 unit. No cherry-picked tiers, no hidden losses. Here's what the model has done season after season.
Why the model wins
We don't chase wins. We exploit value.
Sportsbooks price for the crowd, not the math. When the gap between a player's real HR probability and the book's implied probability is wide enough, that gap is an edge - and edge compounds over a season. It's the same logic that powered Moneyball, card counting, and every winning poker player you've ever heard of.
How it works
One subscription. Picks, updates, and results.
The model finds the day's edges. You get the email before first pitch, plus a replacement pick by email any time a player is scratched from the lineup. The next morning, a recap email lands - so you always know exactly how the slate finished.
Picks land in your inbox
Every morning before first pitch. If lineups change, an update email follows with a replacement pick - so you always have a live play.
You place the bets
Take the picks to your sportsbook. 1u per pick keeps it simple - and matches how we report results.
Results posted next day
A recap email lands the next morning with every pick settled. The public dashboard updates too.
Season 4 - Live
Watch the model work in real time.
Every pick, every day, tracked live. Tap in to see what the Pro tier has done so far this season.
Season 4 is live
Compare all packages
Choose your tier. Every pick is public and tracked, all season long.
Season 4 is live
Step in the box.
Take your swing.
Season 4 is live. Pick your tier and start receiving the model's picks today.
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